Why Obama will lose: his naive, idealistic base
In the runup to the Democratic primaries, I’ve pretty much been a Hillary supporter.
I guess I’m a member of the slightly more cynical (read: realistic) Democratic base that understands you have to make lots of concessions to various interest groups in order to get the votes and money in. People might find that loathsome, and that no particular candidate can truly represent their specific values, but this is how our system works–it’s been described as “coalition building before the elections” (instead of afterwards in parliamentary systems) but the outcome is pretty much the same. But especially in a country like the US where attitudes and values are so widely varied, a presidential contender is going to do something that will irritate his/her own primary base.
Barack Obama has built his base out of young, idealistic people, and rich people used to getting what they want. This kind of base is built on precarious footing because it won’t take much of reality to set them off.
The Democratic blogs like Daily Kos and Huffington Post have been allocating a large amount of their editorial attention to Obama’s recent association with an event featuring a “ex-gay” preacher that now foments loudly about the evils of homosexuality and how Christ has delivered him from his cornholing past.
Now of course this guy’s a moron. That’s not the point.
Obama has gone on the record of saying that he’s completely against what this preacher stands for, and has even gone so far to recruit a gay preacher to join on the dais.
Unfortunately, Obama’s base is used to seeing him as completely uncorruptible, pure and without fault like Hillary Clinton, whom they call a right-wing Republican in sheep’s clothing (while she’s paradoxically blasted as a Communist by the right). This gives him very little room to attract the support of other segments of his potential base who might have values and interests at odds with his primary base.
Let’s face it–black people are the most steadfast Democratic supporters, but they also have, more than any other ethnic group, issues with homosexuality. It’s pretty much impossible to appease both LGBT and black bases with the exact same message without appearing to triangulate and hem-and-haw. Which is exactly what Hillary does.
But Obama’s supporters don’t quite seem to get this. He should be true to his values! He should support everything his base supports! Even if his base seems to be 23% of the population and barely a percentage point more.
23% of the population won’t win any election.
Obama’s been under heat by his supporter for not moving up past that 23% point, and for not making headway against Clinton.
I think he’s going to have a tough climb. With the groups he’s cultivated favor with, he’s facing a zero-sum situation and he knows it.
Posted on October 29th, 2007 by JM
Could not agree more, and I can tell you there are several people that think this way, although this is hard to see by reading Digg, huffo, reddit, etc…
Oh dear! This is the thing with going out on a limb in predicting political outcomes.
It is difficult to say which way the wind blows. There’s Obama with 9 straight primaries (or is it 10), and the prospect of more. Better than 23%, I would say.
Obama will lose the election. The situation is mounting to where he is losing momentum. After his last debate where he whined about unfavorable questions….well let’s just say McCain should hit a home run in them this fall.
Obama has too many gaffes and his whole images is backfiring on him. I could list reasons, but let’s just say he isn’t looking good.
Wright, Rezko, not going to Iraq, talking to enemies, bitter comments, raising taxes, his idiotness to not support the Michigan and Florida…. It will all hurt him.
Republicans have issues, but Obama is just so bad America won’t care. They got Obama…the easiest candidate to beat.
I disagree with you gman. I think Obama’s foibles don’t compare to McCain’s much bigger scandals (Keating 5, Vicki Iselin) and his rampant flip-flopping on just about every issue he supposedly held dear (except campaign finance reform – god love him – although he’s a shitty fundraiser anyway).
Sure, Obama’s black and the ignorant insist he’s a Muslim, but most of those complaining about these things wouldn’t vote Dem anyway, and they’re probably outweighed by those who are turned off by McCain’s decrepit looks and “oldness”.
I guess we’ll know which of us is right in early November, but I think my instincts are pretty good on this one.
“Now of course this guy’s a moron. That’s not the point.”
You’re pretty clearly the moron. Good luck with that.
It took 200 years to free the black slaves.We whites have tried our best to get rid of racisiam in this great country and we have bent over backwards to get along with you,BUT, your loving O- bomb-us as put raciasm back in our lives.He has backed up your race 100 years because of the things he says and his iggorent,racist,no class,stupid wife.He has made this a racist election not a political one.For that reason,he will lose by more votes then any president elect has ever lost in history.It doesn`t matter what the polls say in this election because when it comes down to pulling the lever, the whites will take their revenge. The black people will always be racist and for that reason will never, ever get ahead in live.
I am willing to bet that even the clittons will vote MCcain.You brought this on yourselves,and I for one do not feel sorry for you.When I was younger I hated blacks and as time went on I learned not to hate and got totally away from being a racist. Now your pressious O-BOMB – US who is ,a racist,a crackhead, a fag, a non chistian person,an unpatriotic muslim, a big mouth with nothing to say has ruined your lives and our lives and you are to blind to see it.
You will definitly see CHANGE even if he is not elected.
For GOD SAKES ,WAKE UP!!!! Even Jesse Jackson would be a better president.At lease he is an AMERICAN.
You fooled youselves this time.
O-BOMB-US is down the tube.
I may be unlike other Clinton supporters, in that I am holding onto my support for her. Tonight at the convention we Jimmy Carter on, and when he brought up the issue of Clinton voters he was cut off. And this was PBS. It was pretty much towing the line and kissing rings on the opening night. I did like Ted Kennedy’s speech however. My problem is deeper. I have been disenchanted since 06 when Pelosi put a stop to the possibility of Impeachment hearings. I really believe the parties are not even trying hard any more to represent their constituents. It seems to be more about creating some new hope, as if there is only one kind of voter in the Party, and that will solve all the voter’s worries and interests. Obama’s pick of VP was the last straw. It was simply another example of how the party is endorsing the polarity that permitted Bush to pull so many dirty tricks on the American public. To me Obama is almost smug. Sure he is new, and he talks very pretty. But for now it is just talk. I understand this places me in a minority, because I have failed to become enamored of him, but to me he is just a lawyer from Chicago.
Now my problem is how can I set aside my interests in the name of keeping the Republicans out of the White House. So its back to the lesser of two evils?
No? I can’t pick on Obama? Well, that sound like the kind of fascist attitude that I came to expect from Bush. And at least Bush was good at being terrible as our President.
Better just vote Green Party, or. If I am smart, I will just give up. Right?
gaetano – Man, you really just threw everything you could possibly imagine at Obama. We got it – you don’t like him. I don’t think, however, your lexical diarrhea is going to convince anyone not to vote for Obama. They will just convince everyone that there’s something seriously wrong with you.
David – We don’t always get what we want out of the electoral process. You could vote for Hillary, although she 100% can’t win. She has asked you to vote for Obama, since Obama’s going to get the closest to implementing what her campaign embodied. So you have to ask yourself – did you support Hillary’s platform, or her as a personality? If the former, you should vote for Barack. If the latter, well – I’m not entirely sure American Idol needs to be upstaged by the US electoral process.
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