In the runup to the Democratic primaries, I’ve pretty much been a Hillary supporter.

I guess I’m a member of the slightly more cynical (read: realistic) Democratic base that understands you have to make lots of concessions to various interest groups in order to get the votes and money in. People might find that loathsome, and that no particular candidate can truly represent their specific values, but this is how our system works–it’s been described as “coalition building before the elections” (instead of afterwards in parliamentary systems) but the outcome is pretty much the same. But especially in a country like the US where attitudes and values are so widely varied, a presidential contender is going to do something that will irritate his/her own primary base.

Barack Obama has built his base out of young, idealistic people, and rich people used to getting what they want. This kind of base is built on precarious footing because it won’t take much of reality to set them off.

The Democratic blogs like Daily Kos and Huffington Post have been allocating a large amount of their editorial attention to Obama’s recent association with an event featuring a “ex-gay” preacher that now foments loudly about the evils of homosexuality and how Christ has delivered him from his cornholing past.

Now of course this guy’s a moron. That’s not the point.

Obama has gone on the record of saying that he’s completely against what this preacher stands for, and has even gone so far to recruit a gay preacher to join on the dais.

Unfortunately, Obama’s base is used to seeing him as completely uncorruptible, pure and without fault like Hillary Clinton, whom they call a right-wing Republican in sheep’s clothing (while she’s paradoxically blasted as a Communist by the right). This gives him very little room to attract the support of other segments of his potential base who might have values and interests at odds with his primary base.

Let’s face it–black people are the most steadfast Democratic supporters, but they also have, more than any other ethnic group, issues with homosexuality. It’s pretty much impossible to appease both LGBT and black bases with the exact same message without appearing to triangulate and hem-and-haw. Which is exactly what Hillary does.

But Obama’s supporters don’t quite seem to get this. He should be true to his values! He should support everything his base supports! Even if his base seems to be 23% of the population and barely a percentage point more.

23% of the population won’t win any election.

Obama’s been under heat by his supporter for not moving up past that 23% point, and for not making headway against Clinton.

I think he’s going to have a tough climb. With the groups he’s cultivated favor with, he’s facing a zero-sum situation and he knows it.

Posted on October 29th, 2007 by JM